Market veterans will let you know that when most financial supporters believe that a particular market dynamics will work, the opposite will often happen.
Today, 72% of financial experts surveyed by the public relations of commercial and financial affairs predict a recession in 2023.
In addition, Bloomberg business analysts recently thought that this possibility was 100%.
Is it possible to make a bull market bet on it?
Before you reply, let's consider the expansion hypothesis.
Today, the more important assessment is that we have surpassed the peak expansion and will bring a serious recession in 2023.
The University buyer opinion survey found that from around 2021, the expansion assumption has fallen to the lowest level.
In the securities market, it is generally believed that the expansion has ended.
This is a big certainty that expansion is coming to an end
Does it seem possible to place a negative market bet on it?
Confused? Hold on We're not over yet
Although the common saying is "recession/expansion", the profit assumption in 2023 has more noticeable conflicts.
To illustrate the reason, suppose that the expansion is an incredible 10%, while the income of an organization has increased by half.
Overall, the profit is amazing. Despite the amazing expansion speed, financial supporters will still cheer and pour into the stock market.
Again, if the expansion rate is only 3%, an organization's profits will be seriously affected, leading to 0% development. In fact, financial supporters will help - although the 3% expansion rate is far lower than the previous 10% expansion rate.
Profits do vary.
Here's the thing. How are the profit assumptions for 2023 prepared?
The profit assumption in 2023 is comprehensive, depending on the person you ask
The standard of the agreement is to increase profits by 5% in 2023.Therefore, in the current economic downturn, the 5% profit growth is worrying. Nevertheless, we should continue to move forward.
In fact, what are the directors' expectations for profits?
This is CNBC:
When will no profit end in 2023?
This is the subject of a Bloomberg review of 134 asset managers.
In general, regulators expect that profits will normally increase by 10% after one year (71% of revenue is expected to increase).
According to the data of Multpl.com, the median income growth rate of the S&P 500 index since 1990 is 12.3%. In this way, although there is a profound recession assumption, store managers accept that the profit growth from now on will be slightly lower than the average level.
However, it is undeniable that many planners are now more negative.
Then, at this point, David Kostin called for 0% revenue growth.
In this way, we forecast a profit growth rate of - 20%... to 0%... to+10% in 2023.
Extraordinary, very supportive.
Conclusion
Although 2023 is the most chaotic market, you can still make profits if you invest reasonably. May your investment bring rich returns and allow you to reap unlimited success. I wish you a smooth investment and an early realization of your dream!
